Sandown Bet 365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase – 3m 5 ½ f
West Approach (OR141)
Running over hurdles this winter after a disappointing effort in the Ladbrokes. He was as high as OR157 over fences in the 17/18 season and has run very creditably behind the impressive Paisley Park at Ascot and Cheltenham earlier in the year. Could have an excellent chance off OR141 if rediscovering his form over fences. Note the jockey booking of J.J O Neill so that’s basically a free 3lb off his back. West Approach has had a long season but that doesn’t bother me but whether he will get the trip is an unknown.
Captain Chaos (OR135)
Has been as high as OR144 last season but slowly dropped down to OR135 after some disappointing efforts earlier in the season. More competitive off current mark with his run on Boxing Day in Wetherby working out very well indeed, including the winner of the Scottish National in behind. The ground would be a little bit of a worry for me with all wins coming on soft.
Others on reasonable marks: Flying Angel, Give Me A Copper, Talkischeap.
- 12/12 winners had no more than 1 win that season
- 11/12 winners weighted 11st or less
- 12/12 winners had at least three runs that season
- 0/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Sandown
These key trends would whittle the field down to Rolling Dylan, Talkischeap, Captain Chaos and Prime Venture.
Rolling Dylan is interesting but Beware The Bear beat him by 19l in Cheltenham over 3m2f and even with a 13lbs swing in the weights, it’s probably not enough to get in the mix here.
Talkingcheap is the talking horse this week and I would have to say that he brings the best form into the race, having been beaten by approx. 6l twice by La Bague au Roi (both times conceding 6lbs). He went on to beat Theatre Territory (who has since won). However Talkischeap didn’t go on from there in the Grade 3 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton and with only 5 previous chase runs and his best form coming in smaller fields, it could be that this gelding needs more experience before winning a big handicap like this.
I tipped up The Young Master for the Grand National but unfortunately he missed out by one spot and having posted an RPR just 6lbs below that which he achieved when winning the 2017 running of this race, The Young Master is back near the peak of his abilities and I think he could be in the frame here, even if there is no value in his price.
Present Man seems to go better right-handed and is also ground versatile.
Aldorithm Top 5 probability:
|Good, Good to Firm||Good||Good, Good to Soft|
|1||Present Man||Present Man||Present Man|
|2||The Young Master||West Approach||The Young Master|
|3||West Approach||The Young Master||Le Reve|
|4||Vyta Du Roc||Vyta Du Roc||Rolling Dylan|
|5||Le Reve||Le Reve||West Approach|
Aldorithm Value Bets:
- Vyta Du Roc
- Flying Angel
- Captain Chaos
Final Selection: Captain Chaos (25/1) 1pt ew
I’m going to take a chance on Captain Chaos who hits all the key trends and should be much lower than the 26.00 currently available on Betfair exchange. With the forecast for around 5mm of rain, this should help this 8 year old’s chances and with the Skelton team in flying form, I would be happy to take a chance that he can cope with the underfoot conditions. Just take a look at the those in behind Captain Chaos in the Rowland Merrick Handicap Chase in Wetherby on Boxing Day and you might feel the same!
By Alan Doyle – 26/04/2019