Boxing
Gennady “GGG” Golovkin versus Daniel Jacobs
Middleweight – Sunday morning, 4:00 A.M. Irish time, BoxNation
GGG is 1/8 to win, 1/4 by KO.
Paddy Power favour him to KO Jacobs between the 4th and the 6th @ 11/4
Looking at fighter and trainer predictions, perhaps the GGG between 7th and 9th @ 4/1 has more value.
Jacobs is considered the number 3 middleweight in the world after GGG and Canelo Alvarez. He will be the slightly bigger man on the night, in what is by far the biggest fight of his career. All this leads me to think that Jacobs, a cancer survivor, will put up a sterner than expected challenge.
However, Jacobs has been stopped once before, and Golovkin can end a fight at any moment. The thinking is that he will eventually catch up with Jacob, and break him down after the half-way mark.
Other boxing:
The odds on the Conlan fight (1/500), and the chief support to Golovkin, P4P #1 Roman Gonzalez’ fight (1/20), do not offer any value.
However, deeper on the GGG undercard I believe there to be a slight mispricing. Carlos Cuadras is 2/9 to win his fight vs. David Carmona. He fought and lost a very closely contested fight (a Fight of the Year contender) to the previously mentioned Gonzalez. Whereas Carmona didn’t win a minute in his last fight vs. Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue.
Cuadras is considered a shoo-in by the boxing press and should be the biggest favourite on the card. At 2/9 there’s not much to be gained in it, but it could be a decent addition to an accumulator.
UFC
UFC Fight Night 107 in London – Saturday, Main Card: 9 P.M., BT Sports
Joe Duffy vs. Reza Madadi
At 1/6 to win, Duffy seems a bit over-priced. Madadi’s strengths should in theory be useful against Duffy. His pressure wrestling game is something that Duffy struggled with against in Jan 2016 vs. Dustin Poirier. There are two issues with this though. Firstly, Madadi simply isn’t as good as Poirier. And second, these were Duffy weaknesses that he’s been working to remedy for over a year in a top-class gym. For those reasons, a patriotic bet on Duffy by KO or Submission seems to be the way to go.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Alan Jouban
Gunnar Nelson is 1/3 to win, but a victory by KO or Submission seems to be his most likely way to win. Indeed in a 3 round fight, Nelson’s inactivity, where he often waits for the perfect punch, could lead to Jouban stealing a decision.
Other UFC:
Most UFC cards have very even fights throughout. One fight that may be of value is that of the retiring Brad Pickett (8/11 to win). The consensus seems to be that he will be too experienced for his young opponent. That combined with the fact that it’s his last ever fight, leads me to think that a Pickett by Decision win is the way to go here.
Some other popular picks include Stewart over Barroso and Johnson over Omielanczuk.
Top Bets
Treble: Combined Treble odds 2.4/1 with Paddy Power
Duffy by KO or Submission 8/13
Brad Pickett to win 8/11
Carlos Cuadras to win 2/9
Single:
Gennady “GGG” Golovkin between 7th and 9th 4/1
By Robert Manning, 17th March 2017
